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Climate change

The most general description of climate change refers to long-term changes in global weather patterns and climate systems taking place over many years. Contrary to popular belief, cyclical weather events such as El Nino and sudden changes in weather patterns caused by natural disasters such as volcanic eruptions, earth quakes and tsunamis, aren’t caused by climate change and aren’t indications of climate change.

Climate change explained

Climate change can be a result of natural changes and cyclical phenomena, but most people think of climate change as being mainly the result of human activity, such as the burning of fossil fuels in coal-fired electricity generating stations and exhaust gases from motor vehicle internal combustion engines.  Science indicates that the emissions of carbon-based gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), among many other gases and from numerous sources – animal digestive gases are considered to be a major source of (CH4), as are volcanoes – are significant contributors to climate change. 

Under “normal” conditions the Earth is able to absorb and retain some of the sun’s radiant energy in the form of heat, which makes life, as we know it, possible – the so-called “greenhouse” effect.  Excess heat is reflected/radiated back into the atmosphere, which prevents the earth’s temperature from rising too much. 

When C-gases are emitted into the atmosphere, scientist’s models show that this provides a stronger greenhouse effect in that the additional C-gases prevent sufficient heat from leaving the earth’s surface, thus causing the earth’s temperature to rise. 

This, in turn, could result in global climate change with, to date, unknown and unquantifiable impacts on human, animal and plant life.  Currently the percentage of carbon in the atmosphere is about 380ppm (parts per million or 0.038% of the total composition of the atmosphere) and rising and science models indicate that a danger point could be reached if the carbon percentage rises above 450ppm causing a temperature rise of more than 2 degrees C.  It should be noted that there are many other natural causes of temperature rise and also that rapid population growth is precipitating an increasing use of fossil fuels.  

To date, while there is anecdotal evidence of changing climates in various parts of the world, there is little hard quantitative data to support this as a long-term trend as opposed to natural climatic cycles of varying duration – there have been three or four significant climate reversals over the past 2000 years.

Global climate actions

Many political leaders and climate change activists are trying to get global consensus on actions to be taken to prevent climate change through the mitigation of C-emissions into the atmosphere.  They propose a legally binding agreement that will force countries to find ways to curb their carbon emissions with the aim of limiting carbon emissions to 2 degrees C, with supporting trade and other sanctions for transgressors.  Scientists believe that even if all C-emissions were cut immediately, this would still result in a 2-degree rise within a few decades.

As far as the global and local fossil fuel industry is concerned (together with governments and stakeholders), it has embarked on a number of research initiatives and technical innovations that together will result in a significant reduction in the carbon-based and other gases emitted from power plants, industrial plants, motor vehicles and other production and uses of fossil fuels. 

It is important to realise that South Africa is an energy-intensive country, with a large underdeveloped segment of its population, and largely dependent on minerals, mining and manufacturing for its economic development and growth. Every effort is being made to reduce carbon emissions, but industrial and social-economic development and political stability must remain South Africa’s top priority.

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